The Cidatel and Situational Awareness story is interesting from a variety of perspectives. One of them is the obvious: Stocks go down dramatically on rate hike fears; we just saw an instance of that. So, investors buying into the current regime of violent drops and bounces, essentially bet on no rate hikes for some time. I don't know what will happen regarding rates. I understand, that the bond market might point towards a hike sometime in '26. The wild card is Kevin Maxwell Warsh; he can talk and talk about inflation, but will he actually walk the talk and hike? Into the US midterm elections? I don't have the answer. If Kevin Maxwell Warsh doesn't want to tank the market into the US midterm elections, then we might be in for a classic, the V-shaped recovery. Maybe he will wait till after the US midterm elections, if he wants to hike at all? At the end of the day, price action depends, at least partly, on what the market believes regarding upcoming potential hikes. Interesting times indeed; I wish I had a crystal ball... 😊
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