📊 [XWIN TREND INDEX | July 31, 2026] Composite Score: 68 / 100 ・80–100 = Strong Uptrend ・60–79 = Mild Uptrend ・40–59 = Neutral / No Clear Direction ・20–39 = Mild Downtrend ・0–19 = Strong Downtrend 7-Day Moving Average: 57.43 ↓ 14-Day Moving Average: 64.43 ↓ Overall direction: Mild Uptrend Bitcoin has regained the $64,000 level, supported by a rebound in U.S. equities and spot buying on Coinbase. However, moving averages remain downward-sloping, indicating that a definitive trend reversal has not yet been confirmed. ――――――――――――――――――― Market Summary ・Bitcoin is trading around $64,700, having briefly reclaimed the $65,000 level, recovering from a recent low of approximately $63,500. ・Following a sharp drop after the FOMC meeting, Bitcoin is benefiting from a renewed risk appetite in equity markets and short-term capital inflows. ・The Federal Reserve held the policy rate steady at 3.50–3.75%, but the vote split 9–3, highlighting growing divergence in monetary policy views. ・On the U.S. spot market, Coinbase recorded its largest BTC purchase since July 22, signaling improved demand from U.S. investors. ・Meanwhile, the market cap of stablecoins continues to contract, indicating that standby capital has not fully recovered into the broader market. ・With approximately $10.5 billion in BTC and ETH options expiring soon, price volatility is likely to increase near the $64,000–$65,000 range. ・The CLARITY Act continues to undergo bipartisan negotiations over ethical provisions, but formal procedures to advance it to the full Senate have not yet been completed. ・ETH is seeing steady spot buying, while futures markets remain balanced with no signs of excessive leverage. ――――――――――――――――――― On-Chain & Technical Trends ・Bitcoin has rebounded from support near $63,500 and is now testing resistance at $65,000 again. ・If Bitcoin sustains the $64,000 level, the next targets are a breakout above $65,000 and resistance zones at $67,000–$68,000. ・Spot buying on Coinbase has increased, suggesting early signs of improving demand from previously weak U.S. investors. ・BTC that has not moved in over a year is increasing by approximately 217,000 BTC per month, signaling continued accumulation by long-term holders. ・Declining exchange reserves alongside rising long-term holdings suggest a reduction in medium- to long-term sellable supply. ・Meanwhile, declining stablecoin supply indicates that new capital inflows supporting spot demand remain insufficient. ・On Hyperliquid, large investors’ short positions exceed longs, indicating continued caution in the derivatives market. ・With open interest at elevated levels ahead of options expiration, attention is needed for potential stalls near $65,000 or sudden short squeezes. ――――――――――――――――――― Sentiment ・Following yesterday’s strong risk-off sentiment, market psychology has improved amid the rebound in U.S. equities and Bitcoin’s recovery to the $64,000 range. ・Bitcoin’s relative stability compared to the volatility of large tech stocks reinforces its perception as an independent asset class. ・Numerous communications urging support for the CLARITY Act have been sent to senators; industry optimism for its passage remains strong. ・The SEC supports the bill’s passage and has affirmed its position that a federal regulatory framework for crypto markets is necessary. ・However, disagreements in the Senate over ethical provisions and developer protections persist, leaving the risk of a voting delay. ・While Strategy’s significant unrealized losses are a concern, its decision to hold rather than sell BTC provides reassurance on supply-demand fundamentals. ・Ahead of BTC and ETH options expiration, short-term positions are being adjusted, making sentiment more prone to sudden shifts. ・Current sentiment: “Expectations for a short-term rebound have recovered, but confidence in a strong trend reversal remains weak.” ――――――――――――――――――― U.S. Traditional Markets ・The Federal Reserve held rates steady and maintained its data-dependent approach to future policy decisions, monitoring both inflation and employment. ・Persistently high long-term Treasury yields continue to cap upside potential for growth stocks and crypto assets—a key macro risk. ・Microsoft’s earnings report confirmed strong growth in Azure, supporting equity markets through robust AI and cloud demand. ・U.S. equities rebounded led by large tech stocks, contributing to improved sentiment across risk assets overall. ・However, concerns over massive capital expenditures and funding needs among AI-related firms are intensifying stock-specific selection pressures. ・Slowing growth in the PCE price index eases inflation concerns but is not yet sufficient to confirm a Fed policy pivot. ・Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and fluctuations in oil prices remain risks influencing inflation trends, long-term rates, and the dollar’s direction. ・Volatility in USD/JPY due to expectations of Bank of Japan meetings and potential forex intervention strongly impacts BTC prices denominated in yen.Overall Assessment BTC has rebounded from around $63,500 to the upper $64,000 range. We have significantly raised the overall score from 31 points yesterday to 68 points, reflecting positive sentiment from spot buying on Coinbase, a rebound in U.S. equities, and increased long-term holding volumes. However, both the 7-day and 14-day moving averages remain downward, and challenges persist, including shrinking stablecoin supply and elevated open interest. Today’s key focus areas are ETF flows, post-options expiry OI adjustments, whether BTC can break above $65,000, and whether Coinbase’s spot buying momentum continues.