$BTC: Japan remains an underestimated risk factor for global risk assets. The carry trade has not yet reversed, but the potential fuel for a rapid unwind is visible. In the Yen carry trade, investors borrow Yen at low rates and invest the capital in higher-yielding assets such as U.S. tech stocks or #Bitcoin. How to read the monitor: 🔵 JGB VIX: Stress in the Japanese bond market 🔴 USD/JPY inverted: upward line = stronger Yen 🟡 JPY COT Spread: strongly negative = high speculative Yen shorts 🟢 Bitcoin: reaction of risk assets It becomes critical if all of the following occur simultaneously: - JGB VIX rises significantly, - the Yen appreciates sharply, - the negative COT spread rapidly moves toward zero, and Bitcoin continues to decline. In such a scenario, investors would need to buy back Yen while simultaneously unwinding leveraged positions in risk assets—a classic carry trade unwind. Currently, Yen positioning is strongly negative, making it potentially vulnerable. However, JGB stress and Yen appreciation have not yet confirmed an unwind. This means currently: The Japan risk is built up, but not yet triggered. Only the combination of rising bond volatility, a stronger Yen, and a falling Bitcoin would serve as a clear risk-off signal. Bitcoin EW Analysis: https://t.co/pRbIzkk82I Let’s go 💪 Knowledge is wealth. Recognize trends. Act with foresight. TSC | Trend Serra Capital