In a bull market, the focus is on “realizing profits”; therefore, when indicators return to the break-even point (zero line), it acts as support—sellers are exhausted, making it easy to form a阶段性 bottom. In a bear market, the focus is on “realizing losses”; conversely, the break-even point becomes resistance—those who exit early tend to form a阶段性 top. Currently, BTC is at the net profit/loss break-even point. Following this logic, if we look only at lower timeframes, the probability of a “downward” move is certainly greater than that of an “upward” move (including false breakouts followed by a decline). However, from a higher perspective, we can interpret another layer of information: The two negative values in February and June show a pattern of lower highs and lower lows. Yet, even as prices declined further, the net realized losses did not continue to expand—creating a divergence from price. This suggests that the precursor process to a trend reversal is slowly and quietly unfolding. Even if prices decline again, if net realized losses fall below the previous low, it would almost certainly confirm on the higher timeframe that the probability of an “upward” move will exceed that of a “downward” move. Remember: historically, prolonged divergences have always culminated in decisive turning points.