source avatarEndGame Macro

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This confuses the quantity of money with how actively it is circulating through the economy. M2 grew during 2008 while credit froze, asset prices collapsed and unemployment surged because households were hoarding liquid deposits as private credit contracted. The relevant question is whether velocity, bank lending, collateral values and real spending are strengthening, not simply whether nominal M2 is positive. With M1 velocity beginning to soften, M2 velocity nearly flat and an oil shock temporarily lifting prices while destroying purchasing power, domestic M2 growth does not rule out a deflationary bust driven by falling demand, tighter credit and a global dollar shortage.

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