The United States cannot afford to appear incapable of defending a critical passage, because that would damage the credibility of its deterrence. In imperial politics, reputation is often the real currency: if allies and adversaries see Washington unable to guarantee security in one of the world’s main maritime choke points, it raises broader doubts about the reliability of American commitments. That is why Hormuz is not only about oil, but also about demonstrating who sets the rules. The cost of withdrawal for the United States may end up being higher than the savings from avoiding military expenses.