The Fed meeting tomorrow could be one of the biggest market movers this week. Right now, markets are pricing in: 64.2% chance of rates staying unchanged. 35.8% chance of a surprise 25bps hike. The important part isn't just the decision. It's the message. If the Fed signals that inflation is still a concern and keeps policy tighter for longer, risk assets could take a hit. That means pressure on: • Bitcoin • Stocks • Crypto liquidity But if the Fed remains patient and gives markets confidence that cuts are still possible later this year, we could see risk assets react positively. Bitcoin has been trading through a period of reduced leverage and lower speculation. The next catalyst is macro. My focus tomorrow: Not just what the Fed does. But what they say about: • Inflation • Future rate cuts • Economic strength • Liquidity conditions A surprise hike would likely create short-term volatility. A dovish Fed could be the catalyst Bitcoin needs to regain momentum. Either way, tomorrow's meeting matters. The market isn't waiting for the rate decision. It's waiting for the Fed's next signal.
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