10.5 million Bitcoin are currently in loss. This sounds extremely bearish. However, historically, this has often been a characteristic accompanying later bear market phases. The Supply in Loss indicator measures how many BTC are currently trading below their on-chain cost basis. The higher the value, the more coins are held on wallets whose owners are currently carrying paper losses. We saw precisely such extreme levels in 2018, during the 2020 COVID crash, and in the 2022 bear market. The common denominator: a significant portion of the market had already capitulated. This does not mean the bottom has necessarily been reached. Historically, such phases could persist for weeks or even months. But they indicate that a substantial portion of the pain has already been absorbed by the market. Weak hands are selling. Convicted long-term investors are accumulating. Coins are changing hands, and step by step, this builds the foundation for the next cycle. From my perspective, this chart does not say: “The bear market is over.” Rather, it says: “The market is in a phase that historically has often laid the groundwork for the next bull market.” 📈