Grayscale: Bitcoin Bear Market Could Last Until September or October Grayscale said Bitcoin’s current bear market could continue until September or October if the traditional four-year cycle holds, as previous downturns typically bottomed about a year after the market peak and produced average drawdowns of roughly 80%. However, the firm favors a macro-driven framework, arguing that Bitcoin is becoming a more mature asset whose performance increasingly depends on economic growth and real interest rates. Grayscale said Bitcoin may have already bottomed if the U.S. economy remains resilient and the Federal Reserve avoids further rate increases.