Some observations/learnings from my short stint trying to marketmake worldcup markets on hyperliquid (in the arena experimenting): 1) unlike equities / crypto assets, there isn’t any volatility pre-game where price wiggles around for you to make money from people crossing the spread 2) the only volatility is when an event happens (goal, penalty, corners), then informed flow ie people who are faster, come in to wipe out your PnL 3) you cant hold much inventory since it just decays to $1 or $0 within a short two hours. And you should hold less inventory as time goes by 4) we have no edge in pricing "fair" since sportsbooks have been refining their models for a long time alr, so best we can do is just take Betfair/Polymarket as fair, and quote from there. 5) the only thing that matters is latency. you just need to pull your orders as soon as the striker’s foot touches the ball (not when the ball enters the goal). Get this data for sportsradar, Lsports, stat score etc. it’ll cost you
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