$BTC #Bitcoin $BTC: The seasonally most challenging phase of the year is approaching 👀 Data since 2013 shows August and September as the weakest consecutive risk window: • August: Median −7.5%, only 31% positive years • September: Median −3.1%, only 38% positive years • August + September: Negative in 10 out of 13 years, median −4.9% While the August average is slightly positive at +1.1%, it is skewed by a few extreme years. The median reveals the typical pattern more clearly: weakness dominates. Despite July’s current recovery of +12.6% MTD, $BTC remains at approximately −24.8% YTD. Only 2018 and 2022 were weaker at the end of July. To finish the year neutrally, #Bitcoin needs to gain around +32.9% from August through December. The annual structure also warrants attention: 2025 ended at roughly −6.4%. If 2026 also closes negatively, it would mark the first back-to-back negative calendar years in the entire history since 2013. Additionally, 2025 was the first negative post-halving year in this dataset—following positive post-halving years in 2013, 2017, and 2021. However, seasonal weakness does not necessarily persist through year-end. October has historically been the strongest month: 🎯 Median: +14.7% 🎯 Positive years: 77% 🎯 Highest seasonality score: 91 The focus, therefore, is on the transition: Can Bitcoin defend against the statistically weak August/September period and then shift into the stronger October regime? Seasonality is not a sell signal—but it does define the window where risk management and technical confirmation become significantly more important. Let’s go 💪 Knowledge is wealth. Recognize trends. Act with foresight. TSC | Trend Serra Capital