#BTC #Macro 🚨 The underestimated risk for #Bitcoin: Interest rate hikes are back on the table. 👀 35 #FOMC decisions since February 2022 reveal a clear pattern: • Cuts: +1.2% median after 30 days | 50% positive • Holds: −0.4% | 44% positive • Hikes: −6.1% | only 18% positive The critical distinction lies not between cuts and holds, but in further rate hikes. In this sample, hikes represented by far the weakest environment for $BTC. At the same time, Santiment data shows that market reactions often begin before the #FOMC meeting, as soon as the interest rate narrative accelerates. It’s not just the decision that matters—but what the market has already priced in beforehand. Cuts only become sustainably bullish when lower rates coincide with improved liquidity and more stable growth expectations. Looking ahead, however, the outlook becomes less comfortable: For the next meeting on 07/29, a hold remains the base case at 63.5%, but a 25-basis-point hike is already priced in at 35% (House assessment). The hike risk is no longer a marginal concern. If this probability rises further, macroeconomic headwinds for #Bitcoin are likely to intensify once again. The central question is no longer when the next rate cuts will come—but whether another rate hike will precede them. Let’s go 💪 Knowledge is wealth. Recognize trends. Act with foresight. TSC | Trend Serra Capital