#Bitcoin #BTC is currently sending an unusually divided signal. On-chain, short-term sell-side liquidity is declining, while leverage in the derivatives market is rising significantly. Exchange supply has fallen to 1.309 million BTC, reaching a new 30-day low. Alone on July 20, a net 7,403 BTC left exchanges. Over seven days, total outflows sum to 12,164 BTC. Meanwhile, Open Interest is rising: • Open Interest: $25.01 billion • 7-day change: +7.1% • Historical percentile: 96.7% • Funding Rate: −0.00122% The key point: While Bitcoin rose 4.8% over seven days, spot volume declined 17.7% and on-chain volume dropped 28.0%. Price movement is currently being driven more by derivatives than by broad increases in spot demand or network activity. Long-term holders also show no increased selling pressure: • Mean Age: 1,766 days • Mean Dollar Invested Age: 522.5 days • Both at 365-day highs Structurally, the on-chain picture remains constructive. Lower BTC supply on exchanges and aging holdings suggest no broad distribution by established holders. However, the market is becoming more fragile in the short term. Rising Open Interest alongside declining spot and on-chain volume increases the likelihood of a liquidation-driven move. The slightly negative funding rate also indicates the market is not clearly over-leveraged on the long side—leaving room for both a short squeeze and a long squeeze. A sustainable bullish confirmation would only emerge if active addresses, network growth, and spot volume begin to catch up, while exchange balances remain low. The constructive picture would lose quality if exchange supply rises above 1.322 million BTC, the 7-day exchange balance turns positive, and Bitcoin falls below $61,200. In conjunction with my Elliott Wave primary scenario, I continue to expect selling pressure to gain momentum soon. Structurally constructive. Short-term derivative-driven fragility. Downside risk remains elevated. Let’s go 💪 KNOWLEDGE IS WEALTH. RECOGNIZE TRENDS. TRADE PROACTIVELY. TSC | Trend Serra Capital