source avatarAlphractal

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Dollar Cost Averaging is the simplest disciplined strategy in the market. Periodic capital deployments regardless of price. Diluting cost basis, protecting against volatility. Benjamin Graham built modern investing on this idea for stocks with solid dividend histories. In crypto, Bitcoin is the only asset with the structural quality that fits the same profile. But without on-chain data, you're guessing WHEN each purchase lands. Three Alphractal metrics reveal the mathematically optimal DCA windows 🧵 — 1/ MVRV — Market Value to Realized Value. A financial oscillator that compares Bitcoin's current nominal price to its historical book value, the exact price at which every circulating coin last moved on the network. It reveals whether the base of investors is sitting on latent profits or losses. Optimization uses a 4-year Z-score standardization, expressing how far the current MVRV sits from its own historical mean, in standard deviations. Z-score below -1 → severe undervaluation → the moment of maximum advantage for DCA execution. The orange circles on the chart mark every historical instance.

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