The AI boom isn't killing software jobs. It's killing entry-level software jobs. Since ChatGPT launched in November 2022, employment for software developers aged 22-25 has dropped 23%. The 26-30 age group is down 5%. But developers aged 41-49? Up 18%. That's a 41 percentage point gap between the youngest and most experienced developers in the same profession. Companies are using AI to replace the work that junior developers used to do, while doubling down on experienced engineers who can manage, architect, and review what the AI produces. Early-career workers in AI-exposed jobs have seen a 16% employment decline relative to less-exposed roles, even after adjusting for company-specific factors. Meanwhile, senior workers in those same roles are holding steady or growing. This is the first technology shift that eats its own pipeline. Every previous wave of automation displaced low-skill work and created demand for higher-skill workers. AI is displacing the entry-level knowledge work that was supposed to be the on-ramp to those higher-skill careers.
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