Brent crude has broken through $90, as oil prices are retaking control of global markets. Just days ago, with U.S. CPI and PPI coming in below expectations, markets were debating whether the Fed was closer to cutting rates; within a few short days, the escalation of U.S.-Iran tensions has rapidly shifted trading logic. Critical Kuwaiti oil facilities have been attacked, and commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz continue to be targeted. Early on the morning of July 20 Beijing time, U.S. forces launched their ninth consecutive night of strikes against Iran, with Trump explicitly stating that this round of action is in retaliation for the deaths of three U.S. soldiers. What will truly shape the coming months is no longer an inflation report, but energy supply. If oil prices remain sustainably elevated, costs across transportation, manufacturing, and consumption will rise again—making it even harder for the Fed to cut rates, and potentially forcing it to keep rate hikes back on the table. This is also why gold has slipped below $4,000: capital is no longer trading for safety, but for higher inflation, higher interest rates, and tighter liquidity. If the Strait of Hormuz fails to resume normal shipping soon, $90 may only be the beginning. Going forward, the trajectories of energy, gold, U.S. equities, and BTC will all revolve around this single variable: oil prices. bitcoin:native