🏦 In this Hormuz conflict, the market isn’t pricing it as a "safe-haven" event—it’s pricing it as an interest rate hike. · Capital Economics: Tensions in the strait are pushing up short-term real rate expectations; the 2Y/10Y curve is sliding toward inversion. · The market currently prices in only 40 bps of rate hikes, but forecasts 75 bps over the next year. · War → Oil → Inflation → Rate Hikes → Higher Real Rates: This chain always hits gold and $BTC first. So stop saying “war is bullish for Bitcoin.” This round of risk-off capital is flowing into short-term bonds, not crypto. To see a real BTC rebound, wait for the 2Y yield to turn downward. Let’s watch closely 🧊
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