The World Cup has concluded—congratulations again to Spain! We wonder who among you successfully predicted the winner. Among the over 194,000 unique trading addresses on Polymarket’s market predicting the World Cup champion: Losses: - Nearly 130,000 addresses made incorrect predictions and incurred losses, accounting for approximately 66.7% of participants. - Most losses were modest: 114,000 addresses lost less than $100, with an average loss of under $10. - 43 addresses lost over $100,000 each, totaling more than $15 million in combined losses. Profits: - One-third of addresses turned a profit, but most gains were small—over 90% earned less than $100, with an average profit of under $5. - The largest gains were concentrated among a few traders: 54 addresses profited over $100,000 each, collectively earning more than $22 million. - Five legendary traders achieved profits exceeding $1 million: asparagus2012, Allezpapa, yamal19, thesingularityisnear, and wco26. Global events like the World Cup attract massive trading volume and liquidity—but the majority of substantial profits are typically captured by a small number of traders with superior information and stronger risk management.