Do you know that Bitcoin erased nearly half its value during New York trading hours since spot ETFs launched? $10,000 invested only during New York trading hours became just $5,400 and the same $10,000 invested only while Wall Street was closed became $25,600. I separated every 15 minute Bitcoin candle since spot ETFs launched on January 11, 2024 into two groups: Regular NYSE hours and Everything outside them. Bitcoin gained 39.0% overall. NYSE hours: -45.8% Outside NYSE hours: +156.5% I repeated the test on Bitcoin perpetuals. NYSE hours: -46.5% Outside NYSE hours: +159.6% The US session produced roughly 35% of futures volume, yet nearly all the compounded return was generated while the US stock market was closed. This does not prove ETFs caused the selling but it does show that Bitcoin’s post ETF rally disappears when you isolate Wall Street’s trading hours. So this is the rule you should follow: 1- If Bitcoin breaks out between 9:30 AM and 4:00 PM New York time, do not chase it immediately. Wait for the NYSE close. 2- If price holds the breakout after 4:00 PM and continues trading above the reclaimed level, the move has a better chance of being real. 3- If it falls back below the breakout level before the NYSE close, treat it as a failed breakout. Do not buy it because the level will into resistance and may become a cleaner short setup. It is not a standalone signal, but it is one hell of a filter.
Sherlock | DeFi ResearcherShare
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