I don’t necessarily think $BTC needs to bottom in Q4 this year. But if the bottom comes sooner, we need a larger capitulation to front-run it. Every prior cycle low was preceded by a brutal capitulation. The kind of flush that pushed the average holder underwater, cleared the remaining leverage and made lower prices feel inevitable. We haven’t had that moment during this bear market. Instead, we’ve seen a controlled drawdown, repeated relief rallies and plenty of time for participants to adjust. So there are two ways the cycle ends. Either time does the work through months of chop and exhaustion into a later bottom, or price does the work early through a capitulation large enough to compress the final phase of the cycle. Q4 can be front-run. But if it is, I think capitulation is how.
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