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The great irony of Digital Equity and Digital Credit is that it fuses Efficient Market Theory with the Theory of Reflexivity. Efficient Market Theory posits that markets are efficient because all relevant information is effectively priced in. This was the underlying theory behind the assertion that TreasuryCos should trade at a multiple to their Bitcoin NAV that reflects their forecast Bitcoin Yield. This is also the theory behind Digital Credit. If all relevant data is provided in real time, then the market should price the credit correctly. The counter argument is that prices are driven by sentiment. This is, in effect, a repackaging of the theory of reflexivity. Proponents of reflexivity argue that markets are not efficient because each market participant has a different perception of reality. They make decisions based on those perceptions, which then influence reality in turn. There is no permanently correct valuation. Perceptions reinforce reality until a breaking point, the boom of the bull market, or the bust of the bear. The cycle then repeats. Efficient Market Theory and reflexivity are not compatible. But to understand Strategy, you need to understand both.

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