▶️Let’s break down the CLARITY Act. Recently, the probability of the CLARITY Act passing this year has continued to decline in prediction markets. While some are panicking as if disaster is imminent, it’s worth taking a calmer, more measured look at the current situation. ✔️Why is it being delayed? Many people think of the partisan divide between Democrats and Republicans, but the biggest issue right now is simply time. The bill has already cleared several procedural steps and is now on the Senate’s agenda. However, the Senate has many other bills to process, and the CLARITY Act still requires debate, amendment reviews, and bipartisan negotiations. The problem? It needs over 60 votes to pass. (A few days ago, Democrats participated only in general discussions and then moved on without voting—further lowering its chances this year.) As you know, this has been compounded by controversies surrounding President Trump’s potential conflicts of interest related to his cryptocurrency ventures, prompting some Democrats to demand additional ethical guidelines. In short, it’s not the bill itself that’s the obstacle—it’s the political dynamics making negotiations difficult. ✔️Why is the CLARITY Act important? The reason this bill draws attention isn’t because we’re hoping for higher coin prices. (Though we certainly hope for that too.) Right now, the U.S. crypto market operates under unclear jurisdictional boundaries between the SEC and CFTC, leaving both projects and exchanges operating under significant regulatory uncertainty. The CLARITY Act is fundamentally a market-structure bill designed to clarify these boundaries and establish clear criteria for how digital assets should be regulated. (Additionally, it includes provisions on whether exchanges can monetize stablecoins and introduces crypto-specific ethical guidelines.) If passed, its most significant impact would be creating a predictable regulatory environment. Companies could confidently launch services with clear rules in place; institutional investors could reduce their concerns over regulatory ambiguity. Exchanges, token projects, custodians, and financial institutions would all have a much stronger foundation for expanding operations within the U.S. market. This is why the crypto industry views the CLARITY Act as a pivotal institutional milestone—on par with the approval of Bitcoin ETFs. ✔️What’s next on the schedule? The key moment the market is watching is whether the Senate will hold a full vote on the bill. If it passes the Senate, it must then go through coordination with the House and finally receive presidential signature. However, with the Senate’s schedule already tight, most analysts believe meaningful progress must occur before the summer recess for the bill to have any realistic chance of passing this year. That’s why its probability of passage this year continues to decline. ✔️If it doesn’t pass this year, is it over? Not at all. Even if this year’s timeline falls through, the need for the CLARITY Act hasn’t disappeared. In fact, since the U.S. has already chosen to bring stablecoins and digital assets into the formal regulatory framework via the GENIUS Act, discussions around structuring the broader market will continue. However, if it carries over into next year, it will be subject to new congressional timelines and shifting political conditions. In other words, it’s not that passage becomes impossible—it’s just that more time and variables are introduced. Personally, I don’t believe we should view the market pessimistically just because passage odds have dipped recently. Looking at why it’s delayed, it’s less about opposition to the industry and more about legislative scheduling and political negotiation processes. Regulatory frameworks in crypto don’t get created overnight. Bitcoin ETFs took time. Stablecoin regulations took time. But in both cases, the direction ultimately moved toward formal integration into the financial system. We should view the CLARITY Act through the same lens. Unless you’ve placed bets on prediction markets, there’s no need to react emotionally to daily fluctuations in passage probabilities. All you need is a clear understanding of the broader picture: how the U.S. is designing its market framework. When exactly the bill passes matters—but what matters more is that America’s broader trajectory—integrating digital assets into institutional finance—is already underway and unchanged. Ethereum to the moon!!!