[July 19, 2026] Bitcoin Analysis #BTC #Bitcoin BTC is currently continuing its short-term upward movement. While it remains supported by the 20-day moving average, we still view the broader trend as a downtrend characterized by lower lows and lower highs. Key levels to watch: ・$61,500 Short-term support level. If broken below the 20-day MA, price is likely to test this level. ・$67,300 A breakout above this level would invalidate the triple top pattern and signal potential upside toward $83,000. If breached, we plan to make additional spot purchases, even if reluctantly. ・$83,000 The starting point of the prior major downward wave. Only after surpassing this level will we consider a genuine shift into an uptrend. Our current strategy considers two scenarios: ① Continued upward momentum Make partial purchases upon breaking above $67,300. Hold positions and consider deploying remaining capital only after confirming a breakout above $83,000. ② Renewed decline Make partial purchases near $54,000 and add further positions if price falls below $40,000. Aim to keep average entry cost in the $50,000 range to prepare for the next major upward move. In 2021, we saw a similar case where BTC declined again after a golden cross between the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. Therefore, while remaining cautious of upside momentum, we currently maintain the view that “one final leg down is still possible.”