The updated text of the CLARITY Act, which was expected to be released following yesterday’s meeting between Senate Republicans and Trump, was not made public as planned. Industry insiders anticipate the text will be released next week; however, progress on the bill remains stalled, with market prediction odds for its passage currently at 42%. For the CLARITY Act to pass, it needs at least seven Democratic senators. For context, the U.S. Senate consists of 100 seats: Republicans hold 53, Democrats hold 45, and there are 2 independent senators. Even if all 53 Republican senators voted in favor, the bill would still require seven Democratic votes to pass. The failure to release the text indicates one key point: Republicans and the White House have not yet reached a consensus or found a political balance—specifically, provisions acceptable to both Trump and Democrats. This is because the meeting primarily involved Trump, Republican lawmakers, and advisors, with no Democratic representation present. Moving forward, the critical factor will be whether the new text includes restrictions on the president, vice president, members of Congress, and their immediate family members from promoting or profiting from cryptocurrency projects—and whether these restrictions are retroactive or prospective. If the provisions are merely symbolic, they will not gain Democratic support. The bill will ultimately pass, but I am not optimistic about its passage this year. This is a midterm election year, and space for bipartisan cooperation remains extremely limited.
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