Bitcoin vs. MSTR - 5 Year Projection The model assumes: Bitcoin reaches $750,000 (power law trendline) Zero additional Bitcoin purchases Zero new debt or preferred issuance Cash remains $3 billion MSTR is issued to service preferred dividends CEBE mNAV remains exactly 1.0246× By July 2031: Shares rise to 408.864 million Net claims fall to 25,555 BTC-equivalent Common-equity Bitcoin reaches 818,220 BTC CEBE reaches 200,120 sats per share CEBE NAV per share reaches $1,500.90 Implied MSTR price reaches $1,537.87 Despite 8.6% share-count growth, CEBE rises 39.3% because the fixed-dollar claim stack collapses by 91.6% in BTC terms. $100,000 into Bitcoin today would turn into $1.185 million. $100,000 into MSTR today would turn into $1.652 million. $100,000 into STRK today would get you $252,069 after conversion with $65,563 in dividends along the way for a total of $317,632. (this is assuming zero reinvestment, because if you were gonna reinvest your dividends anyway, why wouldn't you just buy MSTR LOL) MSTR produces: 39.3% more terminal wealth than Bitcoin 466 percentage points more total return Approximately 11.2 percentage points more annualized return That 39.3% outperformance is exactly the 39.3% growth in CEBE sats per share. Because mNAV remains flat, all the additional return comes from the current balance-sheet amplification. Remember, this is Strategy buying zero new Bitcoin for 5 straight years and zero mNAV expansion. Can you hold MSTR for 5+ years? I'm going to because I am a Bitcoin bull. The current structure is already loaded. Additional STRC issuance would simply keep reloading the weapon as Bitcoin detonates:
Adam LivingstonShare

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