Delayed cash flow - Bitcoin still hasn't peaked, a cycle that's more unpredictable than before Since Bitcoin's inception in 2009, its price fluctuations have consistently shown a clear cyclical pattern. The inflow of ETFs and traditional financial institutions is causing historically delayed capital flows in the market, resulting in multi-directional fluctuations. -------------------------------- Report Summary Unlike the exponential growth seen in the 2013 or 2017 cycles, Bitcoin's price increase before peaking was significantly lower, and on-chain indicators did not show the extreme speculation seen in previous periods. If the cycle peak was "softer," the probability of the next cycle bottom forming with a smaller decline is a statistically sound hypothesis. In the three previous complete cycles, Bitcoin recorded very deep price drops after reaching its peak: the 2011–2015 cycle saw a correction of approximately -93% , bringing the price from nearly $1,160 to around $152; the 2017–2018 cycle saw a drop of approximately -84% , from nearly $19,800 to $3,120; During the 2021–2022 cycle, the decline continued to narrow to approximately -77% , as Bitcoin fell from $69,000 to nearly $15,500. The October 2025 peak continues this trend, with the increase from the 2022 low to the new peak being significantly lower than in previous cycles. Simultaneously, annualized volatility has decreased to its lowest level since Bitcoin's inception. The market is gradually expanding in market capitalization, increasing liquidity, and attracting stronger participation from institutional capital, thus eliminating extreme fluctuations. Statistically, if the trend of amplitude compression continues, the likelihood of Bitcoin repeating drops of over 75-80% is quite low. Instead, a correction fluctuating around 55-65 % from the cycle peak would be more consistent with historical developments observed over the past several years. The market has not yet reached a state of complete capitulation, and one of the hallmarks of every Bitcoin cycle bottom is the simultaneous appearance of capitulation across multiple investor groups. In previous cycles, a large proportion of long-term investors were forced to sell below their cost, SOPR plummeted below 1 for an extended period, Realized Loss reached record highs, and MVRV Z-Score fell into low valuation zones. However, current data does not yet fully reflect these conditions. Although the MVRV Ratio has fallen sharply from its high valuation range after the 2025 peak, it remains significantly higher than the historical lows of 2015, 2018, and 2022. Simultaneously, the Realized Price continues to rise steadily thanks to large accumulated capital from spot ETFs and long-term institutional investors. The gap between the market price and the Realized Price is still much larger than in previous bottoming phases, indicating that valuation pressure has not been fully absorbed. In particular, the Long-Term Holder Supply index remains near its historical peak. Until this supply is transferred to a new group of investors at lower prices, the probability of a cyclical bottom forming remains relatively limited. From a statistical and on-chain analysis perspective, the most likely scenario remains that Bitcoin will continue its revaluation process in the remaining quarters of 2026 before entering the next growth cycle. Assuming the cycle continues to compress as in historical trends, the $49,000 - $57,000 range remains a reasonable valuation point likely to attract long-term demand and act as a base bottom formation area for the current cycle. This is not an absolute forecast but rather an inference based on historical data and quantitative on-chain models, in the context of the absence of signals confirming that the bottoming process has been completed. bitcoin:native