If you want to understand how tail risk and skew matter to a distribution, you should probably focus on what's going on here. This is where risk management and asymmetry live. The spread has narrowed to near zero. Physical Oil has repriced towards paper barrels and in a week where the CPI pipeline has signalled improvement. This is a signal COUNTER to softening CPI, as physical barrels coming through Hormuz reprice risk due to events in the region. This is a signal of an extension to the infusion pipeline, on the same day that we get the read on that pipeline for the ceasefire period where risk was reduced. Interesting times. Risk is being repriced in real time while the macro signal points the other way.