This view remains: the short-term decline is likely over; the bear market bottom might drop one more time to around $40,000 or slightly above $50,000, possibly requiring a wait until September or October. Each cycle’s absolute bottom is typically triggered by a major FUD event driving the final downward spike—last time, BTC’s was the FTX collapse, and ETH’s was the Luna crash. In fact, the FUD event for this cycle has already emerged: MicroStrategy’s coin sales. It’s implausible that MicroStrategy will go bankrupt outright—there are too many backup options, and the interest payments on its STRC debt are easily manageable. Regardless, when entering at cycle lows, buying some positions after the most feared event has occurred has consistently proven correct over a six-month horizon.