Nov. 2022 FTX Collapse: BTC ~$16K, P-10 Stress Lasted ~2 Months, Then +128% One Year Later. From ~$16K in Nov. 2022 to ~$60.8K today: CAGR = [($60,812 / $16,000) ^ (1 / 3.54) − 1] =+45.8% per year Bitcoin just broke below its P-10 stress floor. But the signal is not the break. The signal is duration. Current streak: 2 days Current gap vs P-10: -2.75% Historical breach rate: 10.39% Breach episodes: 24 Longest streak: 234 days One-day breaches are noise. Consecutive days below P-10 measure regime stress. Right now this is not capitulation. It is the market testing the floor.
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