This Week’s Macro BTC Cycle Position: Downtrend. 1. This week, price momentum has turned downward, yet valuations have already entered undervalued territory. BTC fell to approximately $61,486 this week, down 16.9% on the week, breaking below February’s low and also falling below the miners’ electricity cost line. Meanwhile, the Fear & Greed Index dropped to 12, entering “Extreme Fear.” MVRV declined to 1.19. This indicates the market is deeply fearful, and valuations are no longer high. 2. The capital pipeline has not yet recovered. BTC spot ETFs saw net outflows of approximately $3.4 billion this week—the largest weekly outflow since launch—and have now experienced 13 consecutive days of outflows. Global liquidity has marginally eased: - The DXY has declined; - Stablecoin market cap rose to $314.2 billion; - The Fed’s balance sheet slightly expanded. The water is still outside. But it has not flowed into BTC. 3. This Week’s Structure Global liquidity is not deteriorating, and valuations are already low—but the ETF capital pipeline and market sentiment continue to worsen. Therefore, the most critical observation right now is not any single candlestick. It’s when ETFs will shift from outflows back to inflows. As long as the capital pipeline remains broken, undervaluation only means the asset is cheap—it does not guarantee an immediate reversal.