fannie mae just blessed the first bitcoin‑backed conforming mortgage, with better handling origination and coinbase prime holding the BTC and USDC collateral. that wedges BTC into a $4.3t mortgage market at ~50–60% LTV. coinbase stops being just an exchange and becomes the default crypto custody utility: it earns fees on every mortgage that pledges coins. structurally, this lets wealthy BTC holders behave the way billionaires do with equities: never sell, just borrow. every $400k loan at 50–60% LTV ties up roughly $670k–$800k in BTC that is effectively dead until payoff or default. scale that to 10,000 loans a year and you’ve locked $6.7–8b of supply. the tail risk: if BTC drops 40–50%, you have thousands of loans simultaneously breaching LTV covenants and pushing forced sales, the same reflexive unwind that broke 2008 stock‑backed lending. bitcoin just became boring, productive collateral. that is both its ultimate bull case and a clean betrayal of the original monetary thesis.

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