i just sent this note to clients lowering my odds of 2026 clarity act passage from 75% immediately post-markup to 60% today i said in may that the senate calendar was one of the biggest hurdles, and that picture has worsened. last night the FISA reauth vote failed, so now next week will be dominated by FISA (after already losing a week on anti-weaponization fund) add to the calendar problem the fact that we didn’t get any headlines this week about paths forward on outstanding issues like ethics or illicit finance i’m still optimistic but the timing matters a lot now and odds could shift wildly as the calendar progresses
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