INSIGHTS: Real disposable income just posted its biggest decline since October 2022. Down 1.1% year over year in April. Down 5.6% on an annualized monthly basis. Real personal income excluding government transfers fell for the 4th time in 5 months. Over the last 6 months the annualized decline is 1.8%. The largest drop since 2022. This is not a small data point. Inflation is rising faster than American incomes. > Every month that continues. > Purchasing power shrinks. > Consumer spending weakens. > Economic growth slows. Historically this level of income weakness has rarely occurred outside of a recession. The stock market is near all-time highs. The average American is getting poorer. That gap cannot persist forever.
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