I doubt think this is true, although I don’t have anything besides intuition to back it up. The main contagion vector would probably be BTC price rather than counterparty risk. The initial blast radius would be pretty big, but at least in DeFi the market would clear pretty quickly. CeFi would inevitably realize some fraud or counterparty risk because there’s never zero, but even if that impacted someone systemically important in CeDeFi, it’s hard to imagine the second-order effects being anywhere near FTX’s disorderly collapse. The Ethereum ecosystem also has a track record for organizing bail outs and rescue packages, from The DAO to WH Bridge to Kelp. I wouldn’t want to count on an ad hoc rescue of onchain liabilities, but contrast with Terra/Luna, 3AC, and CEX blow ups.
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