AMD’s Q1 earnings last night were like throwing a match into a haystack. Revenue surged past $10.3 billion, with data center business jumping 57%. This extremely powerful liquidity didn’t just forcefully push NVIDIA back to a $5 trillion market cap— its spillover effects across markets were astonishingly rapid. Today, in Hong Kong, SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor soared right off the charts. Net inflows from southbound funds exceeded HK$910 billion, confirming that capital is frantically searching for semiconductor undervalued opportunities. Seeing the rampant rallies, many are caught up in the euphoria, shouting “the bull is back.” But if we strip away the noise and look at the underlying fundamentals, this rally’s foundation is actually very solid. On the macro level, news of a ceasefire in the Middle East sent oil prices plunging by over 10%. The shadow of resurgent inflation has been temporarily dispelled. On the micro industry front, capital expenditures in the AI inference era have become an open secret. Today, giants are no longer competing solely on GPUs— severe mismatches in CPU and HBM memory capacity are triggering real supply-chain panic. Capital is flowing relentlessly along this most concrete industry logic chain, leaving zero room for short sellers. Yet, the higher the risk when the logic is this pure and everyone believes “buying equals profit.” When fundamental positives are rapidly priced in within a short time, the overcrowded trade lane inevitably sows the seeds of a sharp correction at elevated levels. This kind of trend is certainly worth capturing with a small position to ride the premium— but aggressively chasing highs at this juncture is simply putting your neck on the blade. My current move retains only core leadership positions as base holdings and strictly maintains over 30% cash exposure. Let others chase the狂热 money. When this wave of sentiment exhausts itself and a structural correction finally emerges, the cash in hand will be the only credential to secure bottom-level positions. #HongKongStocks #USStocks #AISemiconductor