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Kevin Warsh avoided the word transitory. Then he proposed something bigger. 📰 TLDR: The word transitory never left Warsh’s mouth. What left his mouth was a proposal for a “new inflation framework” and a call for the Fed to rethink how it measures inflation. That is not policy humility. That is changing the scoreboard before the next FOMC meeting. ❗️ What actually happened: ✅ Warsh called for “regime change” at the Fed. Fewer meetings than eight. Fewer press conferences. A new inflation framework ✅ Blamed “policy errors” in 2021 and 2022 directly. That is daylight from Powell, scored in public ✅ Said the Fed is “not blameless” for wealth inequality, citing the balance sheet ballooning from $800B in 2006 to $6.7T today ❗️ What the bond market heard: ✅ 10Y climbed 4bps to 4.29% during questioning. 5Y jumped 6bps to 3.91% ✅ Brent crude +1% to $96.73. The energy backdrop is still the inflation risk he cannot measure away ✅ Polymarket prices 99% no change at April 28 to 29 FOMC. 80% no cut at Warsh’s first meeting whenever that is 🏆 The one sentence version: Warsh did not say transitory. He proposed replacing the scoreboard entirely. The 10Y already priced which move that is. Tillis still a hard no. Trump won’t drop the Powell probe. Powell serves pro tem past May 15. The trap tightens.

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