source avatarRawl

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We've been pathing the same charts for months now, and I'd say we've nailed about 90/100% of the LTF moves so far. The macro direction has remained to the upside, as highlighted in previous macro updates—all of which have consistently pointed in the same direction. This chart has mainly focused on LTF moves, starting with the retest of the bottom on February 23rd at 63k, followed by a BOS on the LTF, we then retested 65k where the price officially started building a bullish structure. After that, we faced the macro resistance at 74k where we made a new higher high, mentioning to expect 1-2 weeks of uncertainty after the FOMC—which is exactly what happened. This was followed by another bottom at 65k from which a new market reset began. We've since printed another higher low and are now back at a higher high, now that we're back above 74k and holding it there are two possible scenarios, Bullish case: We consolidate here, Trump folds again for the third time since the conflict started, and the market pushes higher exceeding 84k, targeting 90-96k (essentially above the 200 EMA) into May 10th. Alternative scenario, since we made another higher high last week, it would be perfectly normal to see another higher low at 69k. For the 3rd in a row, this would offer a strong buying opportunity (again). The overall structure has been clear for a long time, 60k as the bottom, 63k as the first higher low, 65k as the second higher low, and a potential 69k as the third higher low as the trend remains neutral to bullish, (by the way it's not necessary to reach 69k—only if it does, then look to reposition, personally I've already taken 10% off the table and will take another 20% off if the rally continues from here while we hold above 74k)

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