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Crypto Macro Weekly Report: Data Is Divided. BTC rose 5.3% this week to $75.6K, with spot ETFs recording net inflows of $871M—63% higher than last week’s $534M. BlackRock’s holdings are nearing 800,000 BTC, whales added 270,000 BTC in a month, and exchange balances dropped to 2.21M BTC—the lowest in seven years. On the surface, institutions appear to be accumulating. However, the total market cap of stablecoins fell from an all-time high of $318.6B to $308.9B in one week—a $10B decline. The perpetual funding rate stood at -0.0094%/8h, meaning short sellers are paying longs—indicating this rally is not driven by genuine spot demand, but by forced short covering. The Fear & Greed Index rose from 16 to 27, but remains in the “fear” zone, still below the neutral line at 45. Miners’ cash flow breakeven price is $77K; at the current price of $75.6K, low-efficiency miners are still slowly liquidating. While ETFs alone are propping up the market, stablecoins are bleeding and leverage is turning negative. If stablecoins continue to decline next week and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield breaks 4.5%, BTC could first retest $68–70K before any further upside.

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