Every time the 12-month rate of change in oil has hit 100, a major deflationary bust has followed. We're there again. @realDhruvSuri and I broke down the domino chain. High oil prices strain fragile emerging economies. They struggle with dollar denominated debt. European banks holding that debt come under pressure. Sentiment turns. And a banking crisis at that scale requires central bank intervention larger than C19. The distinction most people are missing is the ordering. Short term deflation first. Central bank pivot. Then the next wave of inflation hits harder than anything we've seen. Hard assets respond in real time. CPI takes 12 to 18 months to follow. It's not all doom. Understanding the mechanics is how you position through the transition.