Has the Bitcoin cycle broken? Galaxy’s Chief Researcher Says the 2024 Halving Was the Weakest in History. Back in 2012, anyone who bought Bitcoin at the halving and held until the peak would have earned nearly 93 times their initial investment. In 2016, it was around 30 times. In 2020, roughly 8 times. But in the latest cycle, 2024… it was just “1x.” This isn’t just number games—Alex Thorn, Chief Researcher at Galaxy, a crypto investment bank founded by Mike Novogratz—one of Wall Street’s most recognizable Bitcoin figures—explicitly stated that the fourth Bitcoin cycle is “severely weakened” compared to all previous cycles. Thorn posted on X, posing a thought-provoking question: “Is this the New Normal… or just the New Normal until it isn’t?” So why is the “4-year cycle” theory, which Bitcoin investors have relied on for over a decade, now losing its validity? 1) 📅 2012 – The birth of the halving legend: BTC surged 9,294% to $1,163 (~37,000 THB). The 4-year cycle theory was born. 2) 📅 2016 – The second cycle remained strong: The second halving triggered a 2,950% rally to $19,891 (~641,000 THB). Though lower than the first cycle, profits still reached dozens of times the initial investment. 3) 📅 2020 – The third cycle began to weaken: The third halving delivered only a 761% gain—the first clear signal that growth rates were declining with each cycle. 4) 📅 January 2024 – A game-changer: The U.S. SEC approved Spot Bitcoin ETFs—allowing institutional and Wall Street capital to directly invest in Bitcoin for the first time in history. 5) 📅 March 2024 – An unprecedented ATH: Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $70,000 (~2.2 million THB) just one month before the halving—an anomaly, as all prior cycles saw their ATHs occur after the halving. 6) 📅 April 2024 – The fourth halving occurred at $63,000 (~2 million THB), an unusually high baseline compared to all previous cycles. 7) 📅 October 5, 2025 – A new ATH at $125,000, up only 97% from the halving—significantly lower than any prior cycle’s post-halving performance. 8) 📊 Volatility data confirms the trend: According to Bitbo, Bitcoin’s 30-day volatility index (BVIV) peaked at 9.64% in April 2020. This cycle never exceeded 3.11%, and currently sits at just 1.75%—clearly signaling a much calmer market. 9) 🔄 Counterarguments: Other analysts argue Thorn’s comparison distorts reality, as the halving price level was artificially inflated by ETF inflows. If measured from the bear market low of 2022 to the $125,000 ATH, returns still exceed 700%—it’s just that the “reference point” has shifted.. 10) 🐻 Fidelity Adds Another Perspective: Zack Wainwright, an analyst at Fidelity Digital Assets (Fidelity’s digital assets division), noted that past Bitcoin bear markets have declined by 80–90%, but this cycle has dropped from $125,000 to $60,000—just ~50%. Both the upward and downward movements have been milder simultaneously. . 11) 🔮 VanEck Sees 2026 as the Turning Point: Jan van Eck, CEO of VanEck (one of the issuers of the Spot Bitcoin ETF), stated as early as March that Bitcoin is nearing its bottom and expects a gradual recovery to begin in 2026. . 12) 💰 Current BTC Price: Trading at approximately $74,703 (~2.4 million THB), Bitcoin has risen nearly 5% over the past seven days, aligning with van Eck’s earlier signals of recovery. . What we’re witnessing is Bitcoin gradually transitioning from a “speculative asset for retail traders” to an “investment asset for institutions,” similar to gold’s evolution around 2004 when ETFs entered the market, gradually reducing volatility and causing prices to follow macroeconomic factors more than individual hype—not because the golden era is over, but because the “profit model” is transforming. . 🗣️ Community Voices . On the crypto community on X, opinions are sharply divided. Some argue that the “4-year cycle is dead,” as ETFs have fundamentally altered market dynamics since early 2024. Others counter that, measured from the bear market low (~$15,500 at the end of 2022) to the ATH of $125,000, this rally still delivers over 700% gains—far from the weak performance Thorn claimed—merely using different reference points. . Whether Thorn or his critics are right, one thing is undeniable: This Bitcoin cycle is unlike any previous one—lower volatility, ETFs reshaping the price foundation, and a bear market far less severe than before. . The remaining question is: Is the “4-year cycle” truly dead—or merely in hibernation? The answer will come in 2026… Stay tuned. . #BitcoinAddictThailand #Bitcoin #BTC #Halving