The S&P 500 / U.S. M2, the P/E, and the Shiller P/E are all telling the same story. Here’s the continuation of yesterday’s post. Today I want to build on that post with Shiller P/E Ratio and S&P 500 P/E Ratio data, since many of you brought them up in the comments. We’ve already added several of these charts for free on @Alphractal, and the links are in the comments. Let’s start with the basics. One of the most common ways the market evaluates S&P 500 valuation is through the P/E ratio. Personally, I prefer the Shiller P/E Ratio, which is the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500, based on inflation-adjusted average earnings over the last 10 years. And when you look at it, the shape is very similar to the chart I shared yesterday on S&P 500 / U.S. M2. And yes, I do not think what we are seeing today is sustainable. There is too much marketing around Artificial Intelligence, and I believe we are moving into an intermediate phase that marks the beginning of a classic distribution in the S&P 500. The denial from many people who are still bullish is understandable. That is part of every cycle. Now you may be wondering about Bitcoin. Here is how I see it. I believe Bitcoin has a very high probability of forming a bottom between September and October 2026, while the S&P 500 is likely to remain sideways in the middle of a distribution phase. And even if a bear market takes hold in the traditional economy, BTC could still keep moving higher, with a lot of volatility. Between 2027 and 2028, each recovery attempt in the S&P 500 could push Bitcoin even higher. That is because I believe we are watching a transition of smart money across different asset classes around the world. To summarize, I still believe in the S&P 500 / U.S. M2 fractal. And that view is reinforced by the Shiller P/E Ratio, the S&P 500 P/E Ratio, and several other analyses we have already shared here. But it is fine if you do not agree. Good analysis is not just about seeing something. It is about having the conviction to follow it. And at least on our side, we have followed much of what we have shared here, backed by very solid data over the past few years. So now the real question is this: Are we in an AI and tech bubble, or not?