Afternoon desk 13:19 GMT+7 most people stare at the big probability, but the real tell is how it’s computed on @Xmarketapp Quick read I’m using: → At launch there’s no price. First matched limits create shares: a 0.60 YES meets a 0.40 NO → $1 matched → 1 YES + 1 NO minted, that’s your opening print → Displayed probability = the midpoint of best bid/ask, unless the spread > $0.10, then the UI shows the last traded price → Prices are probabilities, not vibes Why it matters: • Midpoint = live consensus you can actually trade against • Last trade during wide spreads can be stale and off by >5 10 pts • Example: best bid 36¢ vs ask 43¢ → 7¢ spread → display ~39 40%. If it widens to 33/45 (12¢), the screen reverts to last fill, not the live book How I trade around it: 1) If spread > 10¢, ignore the headline number, work inside the book and force the midpoint back 2) Early in thin markets, set your own entry and wait; you’re negotiating with another trader, not a house 3) Don’t anchor to round %; anchor to resolver clarity, then post a price that lines up with your base rate Who else is watching mid vs last trade before they pull the trigger