On the 50th day of the conflict, Iran finally announced the full opening of its waters to all commercial vessels. Meanwhile, the U.S. is considering unfreezing $20 billion of Iran’s cash in exchange for enriched uranium. BTC quickly surged above $77,000, while oil prices dropped rapidly to $80. From last night to today has been the fastest period of official statement shifts since the U.S.-Iran conflict began, with civilian officials signaling peace and military officials taking a hardline stance—yet the market has unilaterally declared victory. Theoretically, capital markets can indeed reflect certain future trends: on April 17, approximately 20 commercial vessels attempted to transit, but most halted or turned back as they neared the strait. However, if most vessels successfully pass today, it would at least confirm progress in negotiations for a secure shipping corridor. Clearly, both Iran and the U.S. currently have well-defined strategic goals: neither wishes to immediately escalate, but both aim to retain their leverage. Setting aside speculative narratives, each side holds distinct cards: Tehran’s objective is not to trigger World War III by completely blocking the strait, as that would drive all neutral nations into opposition. Iran has explicitly tied the continued opening of the strait to U.S. compliance with ceasefire terms, continuing to use global inflation as leverage against the U.S. The Strait of Hormuz is now Iran’s most critical negotiating chip—by conditionally allowing passage, it demonstrates its absolute control over the world’s energy lifeline. The White House maintains contact through channels such as Pakistan, releasing signals of promising negotiations to calm financial markets, while simultaneously maintaining secondary sanctions on Iranian ports and oil buyers. The U.S. goal is to pressure Iran into making substantive concessions on nuclear agreements and war reparations—without triggering a full-scale regional war—by applying economic pressure. Moreover, deep disagreements remain on core issues such as the duration of nuclear activity suspension and the path to sanctions relief. Thus, the current peace rests on an unstable equilibrium: neither side dares risk total loss of control. The market’s unilateral declaration of victory is still fundamentally tied to oil prices: even nominal easing of strait restrictions will inevitably drive down international oil prices, forcibly suppressing expectations of a second wave of global inflation, thereby reviving bets on the Fed resuming interest rate cuts. This chain of logic is coherent—but prolonged negotiations will inevitably push oil prices back up and BTC back down to its starting point; this outcome remains highly probable, as both the U.S. and Iran have their own entrenched negotiation scripts. Trump’s tendency to amplify optimistic expectations has indirectly fueled market gains; using political signals to paint rosy pictures while leaving tough issues behind closed doors is nothing new. Yet most institutional conservatives understand that as long as global shipping must still defer to IRGC-dictated routes, the logistics system will remain wary, and the inflation crisis will not vanish overnight.