Trump and Iran have begun competing to tell lies. Trump’s statements include: 1. To reclaim Iran’s enriched uranium; 2. First said, “Continue blocking the Strait until an agreement is reached,” then later said, “Will not lift the maritime blockade on Iran”; 3. No financial exchanges will occur; 4. Clearing naval mines; 5. Iran agrees to an indefinite suspension of its nuclear program; 6. First said, “The U.S. will not release Iran’s frozen funds,” then later said, “Release $20 billion in frozen assets in exchange for Iran giving up its enriched uranium stockpile”; 7. An agreement could be reached within one or two days; 8. Demanding Israel halt attacks on Lebanon. Iran’s statements include: 1. Commercial vessels may pass through the Strait, but military vessels may not; 2. Vessels must follow routes designated by Iran; 3. An agreement could be reached in the coming days; 4. The ceasefire may be extended; 5. Seeking the lifting of sanctions; 6. Seeking war reparations. There are many contradictions between their statements, but we can still extract useful information. First, the good news is that both sides clearly want to continue negotiations and reach an agreement, significantly reducing the risk of war. Second, another positive sign is that both sides are eager for a swift agreement: Trump says an agreement could come in one or two days, while Iran says “in the coming days”—likely because both are under pressure. However, the ceasefire is almost certainly going to be extended, meaning the original two-week ceasefire deadline of April 22 will not be met. Negotiations will likely resume next week; while they probably won’t drag on as long as European officials previously suggested (six months), they also won’t conclude as quickly as either side has hinted (a few days). Oil prices are likely to remain on a downward trend overall. Third, regarding enriched uranium: Trump claims the U.S. will reclaim Iran’s enriched uranium, but disputes remain over timelines and storage methods. Iran has neither mentioned nor denied this point, suggesting it is highly probable Iran will surrender the vast majority of its enriched uranium—differences will likely center only on specific timelines and procedures. Fourth, in exchange for enriched uranium, long-term financial sanctions and Iran’s frozen assets are at stake. Iran has mentioned lifting sanctions; Trump has not mentioned it directly but also hasn’t denied it. However, Trump has stated that $20 billion in frozen assets would be unfrozen in exchange for Iran abandoning its enriched uranium stockpile. Thus, it is likely Iran will give up its enriched uranium in return for partial asset unfreezing—所谓“lifting sanctions” probably refers to releasing some of Iran’s frozen assets. Fifth, regarding centrifuges used to enrich uranium, neither side has mentioned them. Both sides may still be probing each other’s red lines on this issue and have thus avoided addressing it directly. Sixth, regarding war reparations: Iran seeks them, but Trump has stated there will be “no financial exchanges”—clearly referring to war reparations. Since the U.S. justified its military actions based on Iran’s nuclear materials, reparations are highly unlikely. This aligns roughly with Bee Brother’s earlier analysis: Trump is unlikely to agree to lifting financial sanctions outright, so negotiations will likely focus on partial asset unfreezing. Essentially, an agreement appears imminent: Iran surrenders nearly all its enriched uranium in exchange for partial unfreezing of its frozen assets. The exact timeline and method of uranium surrender still require negotiation but are unlikely to pose major obstacles. However, on centrifuges, neither side has yet revealed its bottom line. Thus, negotiations will still take time—Bee Brother estimates anywhere from two weeks to one or two months, possibly longer.