Supply-chain chokepoints are replacing Hormuz-style geography as the bigger strategic risk: APIs, graphite, chip fabs, and refining capacity now look like the real single points of failure. CSIS, ACS, Atlantic Council and industry reporting point to the same shift: vulnerability is moving from where materials are mined to where they’re processed, separated, fabricated, or serviced. Medium confidence, but the direction is clear. In pharma, more than 80% of API manufacturers supplying the U.S. are offshore, and only ~15% of patented APIs are made domestically as of 2025. One Indian plant that supplied ~50% of U.S. cisplatin demand went offline and triggered shortages. Red Sea/Hormuz disruptions have already shown medicines also face transit chokepoints, not just production concentration. In batteries and minerals, the top 3 refining countries now control ~86% of processing for key transition minerals, up from ~82% in 2020. China has tightened leverage through export controls/licensing on graphite, rare earths, gallium and germanium, and is expected by 2035 to supply >60% of refined lithium and cobalt and ~80% of battery-grade graphite and rare earths. In chips, Taiwan accounts for ~90% of advanced-node production, while ASML remains the sole supplier of EUV lithography and a dominant advanced DUV supplier. Bottom line for executives: the next “Hormuz” may be a refinery, API plant, anode facility, lithography service bottleneck, or export-license desk. Scenario planning now has to treat regulatory controls and single-facility failures as seriously as military conflict. Watch for faster stockpiling, friend-shoring, long-term offtake deals, and localization mandates across pharma, energy storage, and semis. #SupplyChains #Geopolitics #Pharma #Semiconductors #CriticalMinerals