IMF FISCAL MONITOR: US DEBT TO HIT 142% OF GDP BY 2031, GLOBAL DEBT-AT-RISK APPROACHES 117% AS WAR STRAINS PUBLIC FINANCES The IMF’s April 2026 Fiscal Monitor, released April 15, projects US general government gross debt will reach 142% of GDP by 2031, up from an estimated 123.9% in 2025. The US deficit currently runs between 7% and 8% of GDP with no consolidation plan in view. China’s debt is projected to approach 127% of GDP over the same period as Beijing expands fiscal support to sustain domestic demand. Global debt climbed to nearly 94% of GDP in 2025 and is on course to breach 100% of GDP by 2029, which would be the highest level since 1948. The IMF’s global debt-at-risk measure, which models the downside distribution of the debt path three years ahead, is now approaching 117% of GDP. That figure has deteriorated since the April 2025 Fiscal Monitor. In a prolonged conflict scenario, global debt-at-risk could increase by an additional 4 percentage points as energy and food prices stay elevated, financial conditions tighten further, and defense outlays continue rising. The Middle East war is the primary trigger worsening the near-term outlook, forcing governments to choose between household fuel and food subsidies and fiscal discipline. The IMF called on the US to stabilize its debt trajectory through measures on both revenue and expenditure. It urged European governments to reconcile rising defense commitments with aging-related spending pressures by reprioritizing expenditures rather than expanding overall budgets. The Fund advised emerging markets to phase out fuel subsidies, address contingent liabilities, and broaden tax bases. India, Mexico, and Turkey were identified as relative bright spots, each recording an improvement in primary fiscal balance in 2025. The report’s analytical chapter on public spending efficiency finds that redirecting spending toward infrastructure, education, health, and research and development, without increasing overall spending totals, can deliver significant long-term output gains. Closing efficiency gaps through institution-building was identified as the most effective lever available to governments already operating near their fiscal limits.