According to Rich_dady, Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Loss (NUL) has risen to approximately 0.2, but has not yet reached a “true capitulation.” Historically, NUL reached 0.75 at the 2018 bottom and exceeded 0.6 during the FTX collapse in 2022; the current level remains significantly shallower than those past extremes. In other words, unrealized losses are increasing, but the market has not yet experienced the level of pain required to trigger a full-scale sell-off. From this structure, two possible scenarios emerge: • Stability at this level → prolonged sideways consolidation (time-based adjustment) • Further decline → NUL rises to 0.4–0.5, triggering a true wave of selling Historically, NUL levels between 0.4 and 0.6 have represented the most favorable long-term entry points; we are currently still in the phase just before that threshold. Thus, the essence of today’s market is: “There is pain, but it’s not over yet.”