This is the part of the oil story I keep coming back to… US exports doing the heavy lifting • ~5M b/d crude • ~12.7M b/d total, pushing toward 13M So on paper supply looks fine But then you look elsewhere • Saudi exports not really stepping up • US production not surging either So it’s not new supply it’s redistribution And then Gulf flows ~10.4M b/d around ~45% of normal That’s still a big hole Pipelines helped stabilize things but nowhere near full capacity So you’ve got US filling part of the gap but the gap still there That mismatch… is why oil can’t really settle Volatility stays baked in
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