The outgoing force is the halving, due to more than 90% of all Bitcoins already having been mined. It was a much stronger force earlier in the Bitcoin life cycle, but halvings have an increasingly diminished effect on the overall economics. The incoming forces are institutional flows which sync up with the broader macro environment, and can be observed in things like PMI. This is why the current cycle was so weak, with no bubble euphoria. PMI was weak and the halving is diminished. The evidence is right there in front of anyone that wants to see it. So both opinions can be true today, especially if we look backwards, but there is a transition underway. The halving will always be present but size matters and institutional flows will categorically eclipse past levels of adoption.