Bitcoin does not mean revert fastest at peak panic. z = -0.56 Median time back to fair value: 116 days IQR: 55 to 247 days 94% of simulations get back to z = 0 within 720 days The deeper insight: Moderate oversold reverts faster than extreme oversold. At z = -0.5: median reversion = 103 days At z = -1.0: 214 days At z = -2.0: 361 days Why? Because reversion speed and distance matters. The best snapback zone is not maximum fear. It is when Bitcoin is cheap enough to create strong pull, but not so far below trend that distance slows the return.
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